India’s Low Dependence Ratio Positions India for Economic Growth

UN projections published in 2022 show that India’s dependency ratio is 47 dependents for every 100 workers in 2023, falling from where it sat 25 years ago at 68 dependents for every 100 workers. India’s dependency ratio is projected to fall to as low as 45-to-100 within the next 25 years before it starts rising in 2033. But even then, India’s dependency ratio is projected to be ranked No. 23 in the world in 2048, compared to its current rank of 43, based on a MarketWatch analysis of UN data. That’s a huge edge for the world’s most populous nation.

Today, China’s dependency ratio is slightly lower than India’s at 45 dependents for every 100 workers. But China’s dependency ratio is set to rocket higher in the years ahead, as an increasing portion of its population is made up of the young and elderly, supported by relatively fewer working-aged adults. This situation is largely the result of China’s one-child policy that ended in 2016. China’s dependency ratio will start rising in 2028 and reach 68-to-100 in 25 years, ranking it 146th among the world’s 193 countries.